The expected average production rate for ethanol in 2013 is 870,000 barrels per day, which equates to an annual production level of approximately 13.3 billion gallons. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandate expects 14 billion gallons of ethanol in 2014.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the January issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is the first to include forecasts for 2014. The EIA’s analysis predicts that ethanol production will rebound following 2012’s historic drought, though relief won’t come until the second half of 2013.
Fuel ethanol production fell from an average of 900,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2012 to 820,000 barrels per day during the second half of the year. The EIA still expects to see ethanol levels remain at current levels through the first half of 2013, before recovering to pre-drought levels during the second half of the year.
The agency said that previously idled capacity is expected to come back online in 2014 to help meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) mandate. Ethanol production is expected to average 915,000 barrels per day, or 14 billion gallons per year, in 2014. The production, along with banked renewable identification numbers (RINs), is expected to help meet the increased 2014 RFS mandate.
Furthermore, the EIA said it expects ethanol’s share in the gasoline pool to increase from an average volume of 9.6 percent in 2012 to just under 11 percent by the end of 2014. The EIA specifies that the E15 and E85 fueling infrastructure will need to increase to allow for the volume increase.